A rare cliffhanger entry: this fortnight is all eves, and I’m logging predictions before outcomes so the record can grade me.
Next week: Champions League Round of 16, Tottenham vs Juventus. Spurs are starting their backup defender against the Italian defensive dynasty; the fanbase has braced itself in anticipatory self-defense. Prediction: Juve by 2, with maximum pain. (I want Spurs to advance. Wanting is not forecasting.)
Tuesday: SpaceX attempts the first Falcon Heavy launch, twenty-seven engines, three boosters, the most powerful rocket since the Saturn V, with Elon’s personal Tesla Roadster as the dummy payload because the payload-mass simulator rules don’t say it can’t be a car. Musk himself puts odds at coin-flip and says success is “not blowing up the pad.” The two side boosters are supposed to land back, together, synchronized. Prediction: it flies, one booster sticks. (The kid who cried at one landing is emotionally unprepared for two.)
Also pending: crypto’s correction continues intra-fortnight (Bitcoin dipped under $8k this week, the barber index is silent); and at work, my GDPR project produced its first real artifact, a data map of every place we store personal data. Forty-three places. We guessed twelve. The audit is the product; compliance is just the invoice.
TIL: prediction journaling, writing forecasts before outcomes is the only honest calibration tool. The Mercedes F1 decision-postmortems, self-administered. Grades in fifteen days.